It is testament to Conor McGregor‘s enduring power that even after two-and-a-half years out, he remains the UFC‘s biggest star.

The controversial, charismatic Irishman has seen 2023 pass by without him lacing up the gloves that made him richer than his wildest dreams and his absence looms large.

The problem is, McGregor has won just once in the octagon since 2016 and he fights when he wants, which isn’t very often.

His rise was incredible. Two belts were won, movies were made and a cross-over fight with Floyd Mayweather captured the attention of the world.

But the drop off has been just as spectacular. Inactivity and a run of the solitary win over a now retired Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone among three defeats took some of the shine away from McGregor as a competitor.

Conor McGregor is expected to make his highly anticipated comeback in 2024

McGregor’s last fight was when he suffered a broken leg against Dustin Poirier in 2021

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The sparkle remains on McGregor the celebrity, a marketing genius who has used his time away from the cage to boost his bank balance through business rather than combat pursuits.

But his truancy has cast a shadow over the UFC and a question about McGregor is never far away from any press conference regardless of the event.

Dana White’s stock response this year has been that it is difficult for a man as wealthy as McGregor to find the hunger to fight.

Filming The Ultimate Fighter as a coach opposite Michael Chandler, who he is supposed to make his comeback against – in June, at middleweight – proved to be a false dawn.

The series was broadcast in the summer and had been intended to be the perfect hype machine ahead of them facing off towards the end of this year.

The days ticked by with McGregor not enrolled in USADA’s testing program and it became clear he would not be seen in 2023. Chandler knows it will be a career best payday and is willing to wait.

‘I’ve seen Conor talk about other opponents,’ Chandler told the MMA Hour. ‘I’ve seen Conor talk about different dates. I’ve seen Conor talk, completely dismiss me and act like to fight with me isn’t happening.

‘These are all ways that these guys try to get inside people’s heads. Unluckily for them, your boy’s bulletproof, alright? So we’re good. So we’re staying with the plan.

McGregor is set to return against Ultimate Fighter rival Michael Chandler next year

The Irishman has stayed in shape, although it remains to be seen if he is the same fighter

‘We’re right where we need to be. I’ve had a year, a year-plus now to think about and visualize knocking Conor out, watching all of his tapes, seeing the training footage that’s coming out. I see that he’s training, I see that he’s coming back.

He went on: ‘Obviously he joined USADA, got back in the USADA testing pool. He’s not doing that unless he’s actually coming back. So he’s trying to wait me out, smoke me out, but I’m going to be waiting here, man.

‘The greatest comeback in combat sports history, that road goes through one man — and his name is Michael Chandler.’

The ‘greatest comeback in combat sports history’ is certainly how McGregor’s return will be sold. It will be three years out of action if he fights in the summer, which is a significant chunk of his prime.

McGregor’s issues stemmed from the grim leg break in his trilogy bout against Dustin Poirier. Having been well beaten in his rematch against the American, fans were desperate to see if there was still life in him in their third fight back in July 2021.

The 35-year-old has not fought since his defeat to Dustin Porier at UFC 264 in 2021

His fourth child, Mack, was born this month and McGregor has been busy outside the cage

But they were denied a satisfying conclusion after McGregor wobbled backwards and collapsed over a snapped bone. A long surgery and rehabilitation lay-off followed but even when he was fully recovered, no comeback announcements were made.

‘April is a lovely run up for me and I’d be happy with that,’ McGregor said in Saudi Arabia this November.

‘I’m in a good spot, I’ve been training – I’ve been leaving also. But I’ve been training and April seems like a good time to come back.’

That would coincide with UFC 300 and it would be almost unthinkable for the historic card to take place without the biggest star in the sport.

His manager Audie Attar also recently told MMA Junkie: ‘If it was up to him, he’d be fighting Saturday.

‘So ultimately we’re just trying to make sure we’re doing everything right and following all the standard operating procedures to get him back in the octagon as soon as possible.

Poirier beat McGregor in the second round of their main event on Fight Island in their rematch

The Irishman is the UFC’s past but it remains to be seen if he can be the present and future

‘UFC 300 would be amazing, and obviously we’re pushing as hard as we can to make that happen. Ultimately, it’s going to be an exciting 2024 for his return.’

McGregor himself has never given a reason why it has taken so long for him to return, suggesting White’s response is correct and motivation is not what it once was.

His ever-growing family expanded to six with the birth of his fourth child earlier this month and McGregor pours more of himself into business interests than he did on his meteoric rise.

But it does seem as though fans will finally see McGregor fight in 2024.

There will be huge interest, not just because of his profile, but because it is a mystery how good McGregor is now at 35. Can he still be the supremely confident striking maestro who took gold at featherweight and lightweight?

It is hard to believe at the moment. The Dubliner fought three times in 2015, three times in 2016 and then only four times in the following seven years.

He has kept in shape but also enjoyed a party lifestyle, often seen pictured with a cigar and glass of one of his own brand stout or whiskey in hand.

McGregor’s one win in the last seven years came against Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone

Against the hungry opponents desperate to add his name to their CV, it is not a winning formula. And for all the pay-per-view buys his return will generate, McGregor needs to win.

Chandler has lost three of his last four and McGregor would paint the UFC into a corner in terms of giving him credible match-ups if he loses.

It will become harder to justify giving McGregor fights against the very best and at that point, he might well think a life on his Lamborghini yacht is a sensible option.

So there’s a lot riding on his next fight. Perhaps that’s why it has taking so long to make it.

McGregor has already completed the fight game. He has his health, wealth and happiness by his mid-thirties but the competitive itch is still there. Next year will reveal whether he’s right to scratch it or not.