The Three Lions coach’s legacy is secure after turning the team’s fortunes around dramatically since 2016, but his days in the hot seat feel numbered

While Gareth Southgate and England will have their attention fixed on Euro 2024 having secured their place in Germany, a great abyss lies beyond the summer amid uncertainty over the manager’s future. After a testing few months on and off the pitch, cracks have finally begun to show in Southgate’s perpetually composed demeanour.

Despite everything he has done for the national team and its standing on the world stage over the last eight years, his selection decisions, performances and, indeed, words have arguably never been under more scrutiny.

With a golden opportunity to end England’s agonising wait for silverware on the horizon, and a momentous decision facing him beyond that, it feels as though we are already witnessing Southgate’s final days as England manager.

• Getty‘Not where we want to be’Southgate should predominantly be judged on qualification for major tournaments and England’s performances at those showpieces, with lulls in the months in between perhaps par for the course. However, inconsistent and disjointed displays since the 2023-24 season began are cause for concern with so few games between now and Euro 2024. Their form was even worse going into the 2022 World Cup, courtesy of a forgettable Nations League campaign, and that was arguably reflected in an overall underperformance as they bowed out in the quarter-finals.

  Since September, the Three Lions have been held to draws by Ukraine and North Macedonia on the road, and only managed unconvincing victories over Australia and Malta at Wembley. Southgate has a knack for getting the best out of his team when the cards are down, but it’s evident that something is amiss.

  Speaking after edging Malta recently, the manager rather alarmingly admitted: “We know the level we’ve got should be better, can be better. Those games that you know you can win at a canter, the number of games these players are playing, it’s almost a self-regulation. There are positives, but we know we were not where we want to be and can be.”

• GettyQuestionable selectionsDespite the relative success he has delivered and his usually inoffensive, calm demeanour, Southgate has become a polarising figure for England fans – not least because of his squad and team selections.

  While there has always been light-hearted debate over who should start on the wing or at right-back, the manager has come under intense scrutiny in recent months for inexplicably continuing to call upon Jordan Henderson, despite his money-motivated move to the inferior Saudi Pro League at the age of 33 and the political connotations that go with that decision.

  There have been some glaring inconsistencies, too, with blind loyalty shown to those who are out of form or out of favour at club level, such as Kalvin Phillips, Marcus Rashford and, previously, Harry Maguire, while in-form Raheem Sterling has been consistently overlooked despite having been one of Southgate’s most trusted lieutenants.

• No more Mr. Nice GuySouthgate’s vehement defence of Henderson’s continued involvement was particularly telling. This is a manager who is revered as someone who, alongside his players, has united the country – taking a stand against racism and discrimination while promoting progressive politics. Indeed, his open letter ahead of Euro 2020, ‘Dear England’, has even been adapted into a West End stage production.

  A self-proclaimed LGBTQ+ ally, Henderson’s lucrative move to Saudi Arabia – where homosexuality is punishable by death – belies those supposed values, and Southgate is now complicit in that. However, to date his response and defence of both himself and Henderson has been tone deaf and disappointing, with his exasperated tone suggesting that media scrutiny might be getting to him.

  In a fraught press conference in September, he said: “My job is to pick a football team. I don’t think you can pick a football team based on any prejudice about where they might be playing their football. I am a bit lost with some of the questioning. You walk in to talk about a squad for football and we are wading into complex political situations, which I am not really trained to do.”

  He then doubled down when Henderson was booed during the friendly with Australia at Wembley, saying: “I really don’t understand it. He’s a brilliant role model for all of the group in his professionalism and his approach. Some people deciding to boo I really don’t understand what that is for. Come on.

  “I don’t really know where we are heading with everything. I’m hugely impressed with the impeccable values and decisions that everyone in our country is making now. I know what’s created it and it’s happened but it defies logic to me that you would give a player – who is putting his heart and soul into playing for England – why you would boo him? Is that going to help him or the team? I don’t understand it.”

• Getty ImagesAn underwhelming World CupSouthgate has built an unlikely reputation as an adept tournament manager since taking the reins from Sam Allardyce in 2016, memorably guiding England to the semi-finals of the 2018 World Cup and the Euro 2020 final in consecutive major tournaments, although they came up agonisingly short on both occasions.

  Expectation, then, was heightened when last year’s World Cup rolled around, with the hope that England could finally go one step further. However, although they swiftly clicked into gear and cruised into the quarter-finals, their hopes were brought to an abrupt end by France as Harry Kane missed that crucial penalty.

  There is no doubting the quality in the French squad, but a quarter-final exit was quite literally a step backwards for Southgate’s England given what had come before, resulting in the nagging sense that a golden opportunity had been passed up by an exceptional set of players. Indeed, with the tools he has at his disposal, Southgate arguably should have delivered some form of silverware, with the Nations League also eluding him.

• (C)Getty ImagesEuro 2024 and/or bustIt is certainly beneficial that the next major tournament comes around so soon, then, with Euro 2024 kicking off just 18 months after the 2022 World Cup drew to its dramatic conclusion. England are joint-favourites with France and are gearing up for Germany with more or less the same group of players – but this time, with no Lionel Messi or Argentina to contend with, the expectation for Southgate will be to win it.

  Given their progression as a group and the plethora of quality players at his disposal, it feels as though this almost has to be the culmination of Southgate’s work over what will be close to eight years.

  And it may well be his swansong, regardless of the outcome. The 53-year-old’s contract expires at the end of the European Championship, and it’s evident from his indecision over staying on following the World Cup that one of the most pressurised jobs in football is weighing on him.

  “The energy that it takes to get through these tournaments is enormous,” he said in the aftermath. “I want to make the right decision, whatever that is – for the team, for England, for the FA. And I’ve got to be sure that whatever decision I make is the right one.”

• GettyLegacy secureWhatever happens, though, whatever his decision and whether you believe in him or have grown weary of his management and selection calls, Southgate’s legacy as the most ‘successful’ England coach of the modern era is already secure.

  The heady summers of 2018 and 2021 will never be forgotten, and those glorious defeats are already etched into English football folklore as the ‘years of hurt’ drag on. Whatever he might have become, Southgate was the beating heart of those accomplishments as he calmly went about his work, and he has built an England team that is capable of challenging and that the country can be proud of.

  Euro 2024 serves as the perfect opportunity to go out as a hero, and Southgate will be more determined that ever to seize what could well be his last opportunity to elevate his legacy to unfathomable heights.